It is a scenario which, in normal circumstances, would see a Manchester United manager subjected to almost unbearable pressure.

United are out of the Champions League at the group phase, 10 points behind Premier League leaders Liverpool and last weekend suffered one of their most embarrassing home defeats of recent years at the hands of Bournemouth. Only three teams in Europe’s five major leagues have lost more games than United’s 12 in all competitions this season (Burnley, Union Berlin and Almeria).

Yet while Erik ten Hag is undoubtedly under scrutiny, that does not mean he is on the brink of the sack.

Here, we analyse why dispensing with the Dutch coach would not be a straightforward decision.

Why would sacking Ten Hag be so complicated?

Ever since the club’s American owners, the Glazer family, announced a strategic review in November last year, Manchester United have been in a state of flux.

Sir Jim Ratcliffe, the founder of petrochemicals giant INEOS, has agreed a deal to buy a 25 per cent stake in the club — which is expected to see him take control of United’s football operations — but is still waiting for his purchase to be signed off by the six Glazer siblings.

In normal times, key decisions around the manager’s future would have to be signed off by Joel Glazer, the executive co-chairman and implemented by top-level staff on the ground in Manchester, yet with Ratcliffe and his INEOS team, which includes Sir Dave Brailsford, waiting in the wings, there is a power vacuum.

Richard Arnold, the club’s chief executive until recently, has been replaced by Patrick Stewart, United’s chief legal officer, on an interim basis. Is an interim CEO going to decide to sack a manager after a month in his temporary post? It is extremely unlikely – indeed, almost unfathomable – that Stewart would be able to do that.

You can make an argument that the current football department, which is led by football director John Murtough, no longer has the bandwidth to sack Ten Hag as they are about to cede control to INEOS’ people. There is also the reality that Ten Hag was Murtough’s appointment 18 months ago and he, therefore, has a lot riding on the Dutchman proving to be a success.

Erik ten Hag with John Murtough (Kevork Djansezian/Manchester United via Getty Images)Is the cost of sacking Ten Hag prohibitive?

Ten Hag has just over 18 months remaining on the three-year contract he signed when he left leading Dutch side Ajax for the Old Trafford job.

If United were to sack him, he would need to be compensated. Whether the club can afford to relieve him from his duties is a valid question, especially as their 2022-23 financial results showed their cash reserves had fallen to £76million, while there is just £40m remaining on their revolving credit facility.

Ten Hag is on a reported £9million per year, so parting company with him would cost the club around £15m in compensation. Further payments would need to be made to any members of staff to depart with him, which you would expect to include assistant coaches Mitchell van der Gaag and Steve McClaren, as they joined United following his appointment.

For context, the club paid out approximately £19.6million in compensation to Jose Mourinho and his backroom team when that managerial era ended five years ago this week.

This, however, is only one financial aspect of sacking a manager. United would then need to enter the market to find a new one.

United are having to take care to operate within the bounds of football’s financial fair play regulations due to spending heavily in previous years and paying compensation to hire a manager and backroom staff would not help those equations.

How does the dressing room feel?

In November, just after holders United were thrashed at home by Newcastle United to go out of the Carabao Cup, The Athletic reported that there was a growing feeling of unrest within the squad, with some players beginning to lose faith in Ten Hag and his methods.

There have been questions over the decision to freeze out World Cup-winning defender Raphael Varane, some felt the exiling of £73million England forward Jadon Sancho could have been handled more delicately, and the manager’s remarks that he wanted United to “play more football” when explaining his decision to substitute 75-cap Brazil midfielder Casemiro at half-time of the home game against Brentford in early October did not go down well.

Ten Hag is not close to many of the players and his lack of charisma has frequently been cited as a problem in his day-to-day handling of the squad.

But, for all there is an element of discontent in some quarters of United’s dressing room, the squad is not yet in a state of outright mutiny. Given the uncertainty at ownership level, coupled with the idea that nobody can make a decision until Ratcliffe’s staff arrive, it is perhaps the worst time for players to be trying to get rid of a manager.

Ten Hag was offered firm backing from Scott McTominay on Monday in the build-up to last night’s Bayern Munich game.

“It’s not just a case of, like some of the other managers, where it’s been a little bit toxic at times; the boys are firmly behind the manager,” the midfielder said. “That’s the be-all and end-all. That’s the way it will remain.”

Are these results sustainable?

Ten Hag knows — and has said in the past — that football is a results business and he will be acutely aware that this season has been a disaster. And while the club, as it stands, are not considering replacing him, a similar message was issued regarding Ole Gunnar Solskjaer before he was fired as United manager just over two years ago.

Ten Hag has overseen seven defeats in 16 Premier League games this season, with United winning the other nine fixtures. Their form in Europe wasn’t much better – they finished bottom of their Champions League group, so do not even have the consolation of Europa League football in 2024 – and, as mentioned above, their reign as Carabao Cup holders lasted two games before they were eliminated by Newcastle at Old Trafford.

When Solskjaer was sacked the day after a 4-1 away loss against Watford, United had lost five of their opening 12 games that season and were 12 points behind Premier League leaders Chelsea. They had also been knocked out of the Carabao Cup at home, by West Ham.

Fans are ready to welcome Sir Jim Ratcliffe to Manchester United (Oli Scarff/AFP)

Mourinho’s exit in December 2018 came at a time of dressing-room spats and a toxic atmosphere around Carrington, the club’s training ground. United were 11 points off the top four places that bring Champions League qualification and 19 behind Premier League leaders Liverpool, meaning his position had become untenable.

The irony around Ten Hag’s current predicament is that only a week ago he won the Premier League’s latest manager of the month award after United beat Fulham, Luton Town and Everton without conceding a goal in their three top-flight matches during November.

Even when United were 3-0 down at home to Bournemouth, a section of Old Trafford continued to chant “Erik ten Hag’s red and white army” and it was noticeable that while the players were greeted by boos as they headed down the tunnel at full time, he was applauded. The same was largely true on Tuesday evening against Bayern.

Although frustration is growing, it appears to be aimed at the squad rather than their manager. But now they are out of the Champions League and face the daunting prospect of playing bitter rivals and current Premier League leaders Liverpool at Anfield on Sunday, the mood can change quickly.

Have United started looking at other managers?

There is no shortage of viable candidates who might appeal to a club of United’s stature. Zinedine Zidane, Antonio Conte and Hansi Flick are high-profile coaches currently without a job, while the likes of Graham Potter and Julen Lopetegui have Premier League experience and are also available to start straight away.

But, significantly, those working in the industry say United have not yet put out any feelers regarding the hiring of someone new.

A manager always has their club’s backing until they don’t, only this time, United’s leadership team almost certainly doesn’t have anyone to make the decision to ditch Ten Hag, even if they wanted to.

Ten Hag’s saving grace, beyond having the backing of those above him at the club, is that they will be reluctant, even powerless, to change course and dismiss him.

His future will be under the microscope once INEOS’ deal goes through, but until then, he appears to be on safe ground.