Australia has forgotten how to lose; whilst Warren Gatland’s Wales and Steve Borthwick’s England have forgotten how to win.
The series may be named Autumnal, but several teams are in full blown and bitter winter, whilst the Wallabies, Springboks and the French appear to be in the full bloom of spring.
The most telling Test for Joe Schmidt’s men arrives in Murrayfield this week: the bellwether. Wales is in the poorest shape of its long and storied rugby history. England is flaky.
But Scotland has the speed out wide to neutralise the Aussie fliers, a midfield among the best, a field general who can find the awkward spaces in what is still a fragile defence, and a bigger pack than those faced thus far.
Win and the Wallabies will be on the front page and all the angst of last year a distant memory. Lose and we can all calm down and call it a good tour. Lose badly and old demons will awake.
Ireland is now viewing their Test against the Wallabies as if the teams are at the same level. But first, Scotland awaits, hoping to make the boys in gold look like lucky prospectors who ran into proper rock.
Argentina was one clean ruck from turning Ireland over, so the balance of power is delicate.
But who makes last weekend’s team of the week for the solid South and who from the partly resurgent North made claims?
South (15-1): Tom Wright, Cheslin Kolbe, Len Ikitau, Damian de Allende, Kurt-Lee Arendse, Tomas Al𝐛𝐨𝐫𝐧oz, Cam Roigard, Rob Valetini, Siya Kolisi, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Nick Frost, Eben Etzebeth, Tyrel Lomax, Matt Faessler, Tamaiti Williams.
South Africa: 6
Australia: 5
NZ: 3
Argentina: 1
Fullback: Wright can do no wrong; when he tucks and goes we no longer howl no, we say go. He has added a bit of spatial and situational awareness. The old jokes are obsolete. Wright has become a proper weapon from the back, having jettisoned the wildness.
The statistics merely confirm what the eye sees: 243 metres ball in hand from a dozen carries leading to three tries. A one-man band. The Pumas’ Juan Cruz Mallia gets honorable mention here for one of the better finishes of the weekend in Dublin.
Right wing: One of World Rugby’s Player of the Year quartet of nominees, Kolbe continues to torture English defenders in wide channels with his utterly predictable and yet wholly indefensible hop step. Add to that an extra measure of muscle and confidence and he was Freddie’s nightmare at Allianz Twickenham.
The somewhat surprising thing is how few caps Kolbe has (39), but he has a chance to make it through 2027 in Australia. When he beats four defenders, as he did at London’s Allianz, it feels like more, as if he took Freddie Steward’s soul.
Outside centre: Each week the Legend of Lenny grows. Deemed not good enough by Eddie Jones, who went on to preside over the worst Wallaby performance ever in a World Cup, defined by their inability to get the ball to the third receiver, Ikitau has answered the call. At this point, he is one of the first names entered on the team sheet, and he is also having the most fun on tour of any Wallaby.
Len Ikitau of Australia runs past Cameron Winnett of Wales as he runs in to score his team’s seventh try. (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)
Inside centre: As many Kiwi pundits pointed out this week, Damian de Allende had as fine a case to make as Kolbe to be listed in the players of the year. He marches over and around tackles, he sees the game, he is almost never turned over, and has for a decade been the mainstay of the Bok attack. On Saturday, at age 32, blessed by the health of a Japanese club contract, he looked like a youngster.
Left wing: Kurt-Lee Arendse is the “other” lekkerback for South Africa, unnecessarily scrum-capped swivel-hipped ultra-slippery wings. But he can unload on opponents as he showed Ollie Lawrence. No slouch in the air, Arendse is called the Butcher (from his pre-rugby career) but never butchers chances. Pound for pound, a champion. Max Jorgensen, meanwhile, continues to show what raw speed can do on the pitch.
Flyhalf: Handre Pollard showed why his spot at starting ten is still not in jeopardy no matter what outsiders say, but it is Al𝐛𝐨𝐫𝐧oz who practically outduelled an outstanding Jack Crowley at the Aviva, but for one closing knock-on by a teammate. He is the heart and soul of the Argentine rugby revolution. He makes the Pumas growl.
Scrumhalf: Grant Williams scooted to one of the best individual tries of the year (but likely too late for the ‘academy’ to take note) but Cam Roigard’s virtuoso performance in the seething Paris rugby disco sets the Southern standard. “Why was he taken off?” is the best compliment for a Kiwi halfback.
No. 8: Wallaby star of the season Valetini just shades Puma find of the year Joaquin Oviedo (23 years old) who probably outplayed the best No.8 in the world this year (Caelan Doris). Valetini is a man on a mission and has added some starch to his game; taking no plays off.
Matt Faessler of Australia celebrates scoring his team’s fifth try with teammate Rob Valetini during the Autumn Nations Series 2024 match between Wales and Australia at the Principality Stadium on November 17, 2024 in Cardiff, Wales. (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)
Openside flank: Siya Kolisi gets plaudits for his captaincy and leadership in general, but the dominance of his carries and tackles against England, staying on for longer than usual to make 17 tackles was notable. He is carrying wider in the trams late in his career and nobody should write him off yet. Once again, Fraser McReight was stellar, as was Ardie Savea.
Blindside flank: Pieter-Steph du Toit has been World Player of the Year before and is up for it again. But his teammate Etzebeth has the inside track. They combined for a double charge-down try, one of the rarer ways to score, but it was no fluke. Du Toit hustles like nobody else on the field. He’s never done.
Locks: A pairing of young, fleet Frost with hardman Etzebeth would not be a bad duo! Frost did more than just run away for a highlight reel try. He is embracing ruck cleans more than before (hat tip to Lord Laurie Fisher and Joe Schmidt for making this part of Wallaby 2024 better each month). Etzebeth has, in turn, added to his chase and pursuit game, timing his block charges to perfection.
Tighthead prop: Judging a tighthead prop with stats or even scrum penalties is tricky. Tyrel Lomax takes this slot mostly because of his all-round work. He has soft hands, does his job at the scrum (one early penalty notwithstanding) and hits rucks for a very long time.
Hooker: Matt Faessler works hard at the ruck, which is key to this tour of the North. Spoiling, slowing, and compromising the opponent nines’ job is a core role for a modern hooker, along with guiding mauls. Faessler has good balance: 11 carries, 11 tackles. He also hits his jumpers. Oh, and just the first ever hat-trcik of tries for a Wallabies No.2.
Loosehead prop: This column may have hexed Angus Bell by calling his play in week two one of the best prop performances in Wallaby history (insert English joke) but Tamaiti Williams hefted his 144 kg all around Stade de France in ferocious and also delicate ways. He can lift a lineout lock to heights not often seen (or needed) with little strain.
North (15-1): Romain Buros, Tom Rogers, Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw, Louis Bielle-Biarrey, Thomas Ramos, Alessandro Fusco, Aaron Wainwright, Josh van der Flier, Paul Boudehent, Emanuel Meafou, George Martin, Will Stuart, Peato Mauvaka, Andrew Porter.
France: 6
Ireland: 4
England: 2
Wales: 2
Italy: 1
Ringrose stands out here: 73 metres off 10 carries, four defenders beaten, a line break, an offload, 15 tackles, and a turnover. Also, Bielle-Biarrey who ran past two All Blacks as if they were stuck in freshly poured concrete. Boudehent was a one-man wrecking crew: 14 tackles, many of them dominant, and took his try well.
